[EN] Sentiment analysis: Week #43
RU Version: week #43
Review created for the project Crypto Shaman.
The analysis is based on fundamentals, blockchain indicators and statistical analysis. There is no technical chart analysis, it is only the “tone” of the crowd. As is known, the crowd is most often gone wrong, the market goes again majority. The task of current reviews is to gather as objective and versatile an assessment of market sentiment as possible.
In this review we gonna consider the following metrics:
- Well-known traders analytics. It is collected 10 cryptocurrency blogs in which each trader gives own opinion. It is not exactly the opinion of the crowd, but the traders are chosen with a wide variety of approaches and different success statistics.
- Paid Telegram channel analytics. It is collected 15 signal (or paid) channels most suitable for sentiment analysis. The authors publish their trades and analytical reviews, on the analysis of which you can understand the author’s mood and those who pay money for his signals.
- Social media sentiment. Analysis of Twitter, Telegram, Reddit, keyword searches on these social networks.
- Financing rate. This metric cannot be faked by the stock exchange, so its values are reliable and statistically pretty good working out.
- MVRV indicator. This onchain indicator tries to calculate the realized profit of large players in relation to total capitalization. It has good performance statistics with certain settings.
- Liquidations. The number of positions liquidated is a good indicator of how much price has chosen the right direction. The market is known to follow the path of least resistance.
- Fear & Greed Index. The Fear & Greed Index is based on the analysis of social media sentiment.
- Weekly poll. Telegram poll of traders ‘where the price will go first’.
It is important to understand that sentiment analysis is a medium-term analysis. The price may be in a sideways position for several weeks before executing a move.
On 31.10.2022 bitcoin price is $20,700. Since last revew week #42 bitcoin is up $1,150 (+5,8%).
Well-known traders analytics
This block contains 10 specialists whose projects have been selected to gather statistics on the general sentiment of traders with trading experience. These projects have existed for four years, have a consistent brand and author’s approach to market analysis. They have a large audience on their blogs.
Each trader has a different approach. Some experts look at bitcoin in terms of fundamentals and blockchain movements, someone analyzes in terms of volumetric analysis, someone work with their own customization/production indicators. The selection is therefore as diverse as possible.
The observations are based on the last week’s posts/reviews, so the data is up-to-date.
If there are no reviews from the blogger in the last week, the latest review is taken because the blogger considers the scenario to be relevant.
1. Hamaha (140,000 followers)
The author’s opinion has not changed during the week. The author is sure that a big player was gaining bitcoin in a prolonged sideways slide. The expectation of a serious rise — before the end of the year.
Conclusion: rise
2. Mr. Mozart (102, 000 followers)
The author’s opinion has not changed during the week. The expectation is to continue rising to $21,600 — $22,400.
Conclusion: rise
3. Tears of Satoshi (in the original — Слезы Сатоши) (102,000 followers)
The author’s opinion has not changed during the week. There are no updates in the public channel. In the VIP (paid) channel, it is recommended to sell when you get +100% to entry prices. Also talk about what is hoped for by $30,000. Smooth gains and holds continue on alts.
A slight spill in the beginning of November is acceptable (possibly with a short bottom update), but in December there will already be a serious rise.
Conclusion: rise
4. Head of Crypto (in the original — Главный по крипте) (63,000 followers)
The author expects bitcoin to rise in the $20,500–$22,800 area, towards the upper end of the range.
Conclusion: rise
5. MMarketMaker (62,000 followers)
The main expectation from the market is growth, the author continues to hold a long from $21,000, which was opened a month and a half ago and is steadily increasing in volume.
Conclusion: rise
6. Top Traders (51,000 followers)
The author has not released the weekly review yet, but based on the numerous deals in the channel and all previous reviews, the author continues to expect a rise to $25,000 — $27,000.
Conclusion: rise
7. Trade by Booba (48,000 followers)
The author continues to expect bitcoin to move towards $28,000-$30,000. This is also indicated by the Dollar Index (DXY) chart.
Conclusion: rise
8. Pimen (17,000 followers)
Expectations are the same, $22,000-$25,000.
Conclusion: rise
9. Crypto Mentors (18,000 followers)
The author does not have a clear view on where the price will move next. On the one hand, there is market acceptance of prices, fixation, on the other hand, there are weak technical indicators.
Conclusion: 50/50
10. Dow Jones Crypto (10,000 followers)
The author continues to hold the long, keeping an eye on altcoins. Part of the long is locked in, the rest is held for higher marks.
Conclusion: rise
Outcome
- Hamaha — up
- Mr. Mozart — up
- Tears of Satoshi (in the original — Слезы Сатоши) — up
- Head of Crypto (in the original — Главный по крипте) — up
- MMarketMaker — up
- Top Traders — up
- Trade by Booba — up
- Pimen — up
- Crypto Mentors — 50/50
- Dow Jones Crypto — up
No one is expecting a decrease from the current marks, 9\10 traders are looking at the market in favor of an increase.
Having made statistics based on 10 traders, 95% of the opinion is in favour of growth (last week it was 75%).
Paid Telegram channel analytics
In order to extend the analytics of the previous block, 15 closed (paid) VIP channels were selected and analyzed, which often go together with the public big analytics channels on Telegram and YouTube.
The purpose of this block is to examine the mood of traders, for which many market participants give up tens of thousands of dollars in total. This list includes both veteran and young channels. A public review is one thing, but how the author in a paid channel trades at a distance is quite another, and assessing the “sentiment cloud” can be very useful.
The main argument for including one channel or another in the list was the more or less adequate presentation of information. In addition to signals, it is very desirable to have at least a short overview of the market. Pampodump channels, which are containing only signals, airdrop, boxes and nft topics were excluded.
The last 7 days of posts are analyzed, focusing on the last 3 days. If the content has not been released for a long time, the most recent sentiment is retained. As this is a signalling group, the actual expectation is no further than 7 days.
The confidentiality of information from these feeds is maintained due to copyright reasons, but the authors’ overall sentiment score will be calculated.
1. BelnCrypto Premium Channel
Expect to break upwards and move to $22,500.
Conclusion: rise
2. Coin coach
In the channel all week longs were traded: 7/0 (longs/shorts). Expectations from unclosed trades are only rise.
Conclusion: rise
3. MM club
In the channel after a month and a half of silence, movement has activated. Alta is gaining on the long side, bitcoin is holding the long side.
Conclusion: rise
4. Crypto coin B
Many alts are being considered for purchase.
Conclusion: rise
5. DW Trade
There were a lot of longs during the week, but short positions were also opened at the weekend. The last current trade is a bitcoin long on a breakout.
Conclusion: rise
6. Ghost trade
Alt is longing.
Conclusion: rise
7. Ark (in the original — Ковчег)
Bitcoin trades in short.
Conclusion: down
8. Waveform analysis (in the original — Волновой aнализ)
Bitcoin expected to fall, some alta is shorting.
Conclusion: down
9. P4M
Bitcoin and a number of altcoins are only expected to rise.
Conclusion: rise
10. Jewtrade
No trades this week.
Conclusion: 50/50, neutral score
11. Romanov
The expectation for bitcoin is to rise to $21,600.
Conclusion: rise
12. Trading in crypto TG
Bitcoin expects to rise to $25,000 — $26,000.
Conclusion: rise
13. Booba Signals (in the original — Booba Сигналы)
Alta is trading long.
Conclusion: rise
14. Aziz analytics (in the original — Азиз аналитика)
The author does not have a clear understanding of where the market is heading now. There are arrows in both directions on the charts.
Conclusion: 50/50
15. FED RUSSIANS INSIDER
The author does not have a clear understanding of where the market is heading now, based on the technical calculations. Upside/Downside probability: 46%/54%. Last week there was an upside/downside ratio: 52%/48%.
Conclusion: 50/50
Outcome
- BelnCrypto Premium Channel — up
- Coin coach — up
- MM club — up
- Crypto coin B — up
- DW Trade — up
- Ghost trade — up
- Ark (in the original — Ковчег) — down
- Waveform analysis (in the original — Волновой aнализ) — down
- P4M — up
- Jewtrade — 50/50
- Romanov — up
- Trading in crypto TG — up
- Booba Signals (in the original — Booba Сигналы) — up
- Aziz analytics (in the original — Азиз аналитика) — 50\50
- FED RUSSIANS INSIDER — 50\50
10 traders are looking in favor of growth (11 — a week ago). 3 are undecided (4 — a week ago). 2 traders are looking down (0 — a week ago).
Overall growth sentiment: 76% in favor of rise (86% — a week ago).
Social media sentiment
Next, social media activity related to bitcoin and the crypto market will be examined.
Telegram
Activity on Telegram continues to be critically low.
On Twitter the situation is the same, activity is still extremely low.
Keywords
Keyword searches analyse social media: Telegram, Twitter, Reddit. The pattern of reactions is different for each chart, but in the medium term these keywords may show either the culmination of a trend movement or a forthcoming future movement.
It is necessary to understand that the market moves against the crowd. When a surge of buy interest is seen, we should expect a decline, while if a sell interest is seen, we should expect a rise.
“Buy” & “dip” keywords
Logic: After a spike above a certain value, there should be a decline soon. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
There was no activity seen last week.
“bear” keyword
Logic: During a spike, the decline should stop, the indicator is a “stop” indicator for the decline. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
There was no activity seen last week.
“short” keyword
Logic: The surge precedes the rise or during the peak of the fall. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
For the keyword ‘short’, no spikes were seen.
Conclusion
No social media activity in the past week.
Financing rate
This indicator comes from the futures markets. In simple terms, if there are too many long positions in the market (the market is most likely rising), then every 8 hours a certain percentage is taken from the total margin of each long position in the futures markets and allocated among the short positions. And vice versa. The size of these same percentages is shown on the funding rate chart. You can read more about the financing rate here (link — in english version).
How to use it?
A financing rate that is too high leads to a very rapid decline. Too low a funding rate leads to either a rise or a halt to a fall. All trend movements up or down are accompanied by a calm funding rate, it means that crowd does not favor the direction of the current movement. As soon as there is a spike, the price soon goes in the opposite direction.
A detailed statistical analysis of the metric is given in week #39 (link — in russian version).
Binance
The rate is close to neutral and there is some seller activity.
Bitmex
The rate is positive.
Conclusion
The financing rate does not show a significant dominance of one side.
It was the other way round last week: Binance was positive, Bitmex was around zero.
MVRV Indicator
Market Cap versus Realized Cap (MVRV) is a popular on-chain indicator that helps identify bitcoin price lows and highs. The MVRV indicator is designed to analyze long-term trends and cycles. It is used as a tool to detect two major market phases — accumulation and distribution.
MVRV is based on the idea of two types of market participants struggling — speculators and hodlers. In the context of the indicator, hodlers are investors who have given up short-term financial gains in favour of a long-term view. Speculators are traders aiming for short-term profits. The indicator helps determine which players dominate the market at a particular point in time.
Read more about this indicator here (link — in russian version).
Generally, the higher the MVRV ratio, the greater the unclaimed profits and in turn, the higher the risk that BTC holders will start selling and reducing their exposure. If the MVRV ratio is low, this could be a good time to accumulate positions.
This indicator cannot be considered very precise, as its figures can easily be distorted. The main problem with the indicator is that when you transfer for example 100,000 btc, the indicator may consider it as a buy or sell, when in fact it was a transfer from one wallet to another by one owner.
30 days ratio
See week #39 (link — in russian version) for details.
The indicator is giving signals of slight overselling, but overall within the indicator, the price can still safely move upwards.
Conclusion
The indicator is in a balanced position, there is no oversold position.
Liquidations
In the past week, shorts have been liquidated as many as haven’t been liquidated in 2 years. Can we now expect a rise based on this?
In a month and a half of sideways trading, a huge number of positions in both directions have been accumulated. The number of liquidated shorts can be seen on the chart, but you might get the false impression that there were almost no longs opened.
But on the false downside the liquidity was not removed because the price did not enter the liquidity zones. The relevance of the liquidity shelves from the review before last week #41 is still strong.
Conclusion
The number of accumulated longs is comparable to the accumulated shorts. Longs have not been taken out at all. As a conclusion, longs will still be liquidated on a stronger move down.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index shows the mood of market players by analyzing social media for keywords. The peak values of this indicator, according to the authors’ claims, signal an overbought or oversold bitcoin.
By studying the indicator we can conclude that the historical values of the market “bottom” fall within the value of 10, or that a serious bounce has been formed from this value.
Read more here (link — in russian version).
Indicator value: 31
The indicator shows a balanced position for a bear market. There is no sign of oversold conditions.
Weekly poll
This week’s poll results:
All sentiment review surveys:
Sentiment parity remains.
Grand total
Public analytical channels up 95% (75% — a week ago). Private VIP channels up 76% in favour of growth (86% — a week ago). Most indicators and metrics in balanced position.
The situation with the liquidation schedule deserves special attention. A lot of shorts were liquidated, no longs were liquidated at all, not even a quarter of the number of shorts.
Conclusions and author’s view
The analysis of public reviews has not yet seen such general agreement on market growth (95%). VIP channels continue to push for growth (10 for increase vs. 2 for decrease).
But the real worry comes from the liquidation schedule. Not even a fifth of the shorts were collected when they were taken down a couple of weeks ago. The market was in a very narrow sideways position for a month and a half and there was liquidity accumulated both ways. A detailed analysis of the price chart on many exchanges shows how liquidity was not withdrawn. It is very likely that only the liquidation schedule and the price schedule of liquidity withdrawal can state that the bottom is about to be renewed.
The market has only gained 5% and the crowd continues to go long in joy. There are few who believe in a decrease. Trader’s paid groups are being monitored, there are no serious attempts to short there. But those who are pushing for growth are now closing their locked longs opened a month and a half or two months ago with great good fortune.
In the last review it was said:
At the moment there is the same growth in the outturn that has been received. A slight upward movement is quite possible, but no serious upward movement should be expected. Why? Otherwise the mood of the whole crowd will start to justify itself.
The main expectation as part of the exit from the 4.5x month sidewall is still down.
If you are interested in the author’s other researches, as well as current thoughts on the crypto market, follow Crypto Shaman in Telegram.