[EN] Sentiment analysis: Week #49
RU Version: week #49
Review created for the project Crypto Shaman.
The analysis is based on fundamentals, blockchain indicators and statistical analysis. There is no technical chart analysis, it is only the “tone” of the crowd. As is known, the crowd is most often gone wrong, the market goes again majority. The task of current reviews is to gather as objective and versatile an assessment of market sentiment as possible.
In this review we gonna consider the following metrics:
- Well-known traders analytics. It is collected 10 cryptocurrency blogs in which each trader gives own opinion. It is not exactly the opinion of the crowd, but the traders are chosen with a wide variety of approaches and different success statistics.
- Paid Telegram channel analytics. It is collected 15 signal (or paid) channels most suitable for sentiment analysis. The authors publish their trades and analytical reviews, on the analysis of which you can understand the author’s mood and those who pay money for his signals.
- Social media sentiment. Analysis of Twitter, Telegram, Reddit, keyword searches on these social networks.
- Financing rate. This metric cannot be faked by the stock exchange, so its values are reliable and statistically pretty good working out.
- MVRV indicator. This onchain indicator tries to calculate the realized profit of large players in relation to total capitalization. It has good performance statistics with certain settings.
- Liquidations. The number of positions liquidated is a good indicator of how much price has chosen the right direction. The market is known to follow the path of least resistance.
- CME GAP. Statistically, 90% of all gaps are closed.
- Fear & Greed Index. The Fear & Greed Index is based on the analysis of social media sentiment.
- Historical volumes. The week before last there was a situation that occurs on average twice a year.
- Weekly poll. Telegram poll of traders ‘where the price will go first’.
On 12.12.2022 bitcoin price is $17,100. Since last review week #46 bitcoin is up +858$ (+5.3%). Since previous review, it has been said continuously that the market will rise.
Well-known traders analytics
This block contains 10 specialists whose projects have been selected to gather statistics on the general sentiment of traders with trading experience. These projects have existed for four years, have a consistent brand and author’s approach to market analysis. They have a large audience on their blogs.
Each trader has a different approach. Some experts look at bitcoin in terms of fundamentals and blockchain movements, someone analyzes in terms of volumetric analysis, someone work with their own customization/production indicators. The selection is therefore as diverse as possible.
The observations are based on the last week’s posts/reviews, so the data is up-to-date.
If there are no reviews from the blogger in the last week, the latest review is taken because the blogger considers the scenario to be relevant.
- Hamaha (140,000 followers)
Sentiment reviews have not been released for several weeks, but in all that time this blogger has also not released a video. Previous videos have been released every 1–3 weeks. The last video is about the blogger buying out FTT, which never really paid off. Before that the author waited for btc at $26,000 in the fall, before that he was buying up the whole cutlet with altcoins. Here is the author’s quote in the sentiment review before the dump:
“I’ve got alts on my shoulders now and I want to see how it ends up, I think it’ll be good.” (in the original — “Я сейчас понабирал альты с плечами и хочу посмотреть, чем это закончится, думаю что будет неплохо”)
It appears that the author has been liquidated for a considerable part of the deposit and therefore does not release anything. The status of the trader is given as N\A. The trader was aggressively sinking for growth, then a dump happened and the trader no longer appears.
Conclusion: N\A
2. Mr. Mozart (102, 000 followers)
In recent videos, the author is set to grow.
Conclusion: rise
3. Tears of Satoshi (in the original — Слезы Сатоши) (102,000 followers)
Here is the author’s latest review. At the bottom, click on 2:48, for an analysis of bitcoin. The review begins with the words:
Bitcoin $17,155, scary, very scary, frankly, feeling like the support level we have at around $12,000 is bound to get touched. (in the original — Биткоин 17 155$, страшно, очень страшно, честно скажу, ощущение что уровень поддержки, который у нас на отметке в районе 12 000$ обязательно должны потрогать.)
The second quote:
80% that the market will go down, 20% that it will grow (in the original — 80% того, что рынок снизится, 20% того что отрастет)
The author even sits in a teddy bear t-shirt bragging about it.
One more quote:
I think 2023 will not be a happy year for many, for the very greedy it will be a loss. (in the original — Я думаю 2023 год не будет радосным для многих, для очень жадных он будет вообще убыточным.)
Conclusion, the author is disappointed. Before the dump, the author produced many reviews in favour of growth. And when the market fell, the author is either in huge losses or part of the deposit was liquidated. The sad tone of voice, the $12,000 bitcoin sending and other sad predictions, the t-shirt with the bear, all indicate the complete capitulation of this trader in the market.
Conclusion: down and moral capitulation
4. Head of Crypto (in the original — Главный по крипте) (63,000 followers)
This author is quite “interesting” in general. The entire bearishness, from ATH onwards, has been about growth. Of course, from the very first sentiment of the review, the author has been mostly in favour of growth.
Here is the latest market review
The author has no clear understanding of where bitcoin might go. “If good inflation data comes out, the market will rise, if bad, it will fall” is the summary of the review.
It’s amazing how the author gains TWT on his current ATH in a long-term (!) portfolio. This is nonsense, as what is on his ATH is not bought back in the long term.
Unfortunately, the competence of this blogger as a trader raises serious questions and this trader is likely to be excluded from future sentiment reviews. It makes no sense to include in the evaluation package an author who, in spite of any situation on the market, is pushing for growth.
Conclusion: 50/50
5. MMarketMaker (62,000 followers)
The review is of the “up or down, it’s not very good right now” variety. The author seems to expect more falls, but tries to go long in the private channel. The author does not have a clear understanding of where the market will go.
Conclusion: 50/50
6. Top Traders (51,000 followers)
The latest review is written in favour of going down, expecting a move towards $12,000.
The author has been doing a review for three weeks in a row, simply copying text from previous reviews. The market changes, the situation changes, but not the author’s opinion:
This is how the author waited for 11 weeks without interruption for the market to rise to $30,000, until it collapsed. The conclusions are all the same. Well, if only the conclusions were different, the original approach…
In general, the need to include this author’s reviews in the sentiment should also be considered.
Conclusion: down
7. Trade by Booba (48,000 followers)
This author always draws two arrows, always up or down. But still prioritises the green direction, towards $28,000 — $30,000.
Conclusion: rise
8. Pimen (17,000 followers)
The author speaks of maintaining a bearish scenario.
Conclusion: down
9. Crypto Mentors (18,000 followers)
The channel author for the last three weeks only talks about the fall, from the very bottom. The screenshot shows all the reviews for the last three weeks.
Overall, the author is shorting all of the growth from the bottom, waiting for an autumn Low update. The author does not at all consider the rise even as an alternative.
Conclusion: down
10. Dow Jones Crypto (10,000 followers)
The author is now leaning more towards growth.
Conclusion: rise
Outcome
- Hamaha — N\A
- Mr. Mozart — up
- Tears of Satoshi (in the original — Слезы Сатоши) — down
- Head of Crypto (in the original — Главный по крипте) — up
- MMarketMaker — 50/50
- Top Traders — down
- Trade by Booba — up
- Pimen — down
- Crypto Mentors — down
- Dow Jones Crypto — up
In the last week #46, 3/10 analysts looked in favour of growth. The situation is not much different now, with only 4/10 analysts looking in favour of growth.
“Mr Mozart” and “Dow Jones Crypto” are quite knowledgeable and intelligent authors, their reviews are quite varied and change depending on market conditions. That they expect growth is fine to respond to. The authors “Head of Crypto (in the original — Главный по крипте)” and “Trade by Booba” are questionable as they have been waiting three months for growth, Head of Crypto has been longing since ATH, Booba has been longing all 5 months of sideways while watching it.
It is important to note that the first two bloggers are now more cautious about mid-term growth reviews, not making high-profile claims. “Mr. Mozart” and “Dow Jones Crypto” still have concerns about a renewed bottom in the market. The authors of “Head of Crypto” and “Trade by Booba” don’t care where the market is, they are in a perpetual long.
Some bloggers, such as “Tears of Satoshi (in the original — Слезы Сатоши)” in addition to all this are also getting especially scared, feeling a sense of surrender and frustration with the market. “Hamaha”, who bought off Alta with the idea that it should be OK, hasn’t released a review at all for over a month.
Having made statistics based on 10 traders, 45% of the opinion is in favour of growth (last time it was 30%).
Paid Telegram channel analytics
In order to extend the analytics of the previous block, 15 closed (paid) VIP channels were selected and analyzed, which often go together with the public big analytics channels on Telegram and YouTube.
The purpose of this block is to examine the mood of traders, for which many market participants give up tens of thousands of dollars in total. This list includes both veteran and young channels. A public review is one thing, but how the author in a paid channel trades at a distance is quite another, and assessing the “sentiment cloud” can be very useful.
The main argument for including one channel or another in the list was the more or less adequate presentation of information. In addition to signals, it is very desirable to have at least a short overview of the market. Pampodump channels, which are containing only signals, airdrop, boxes and nft topics were excluded.
The last 7 days of posts are analyzed, focusing on the last 3 days. If the content has not been released for a long time, the most recent sentiment is retained. As this is a signalling group, the actual expectation is no further than 7 days.
The confidentiality of information from these feeds is maintained due to copyright reasons, but the authors’ overall sentiment score will be calculated.
- BelnCrypto Premium Channel
“Up or down” — the author is undecided. As in the last review…
Conclusion: 50/50
2. Coin coach
“Crypto is at its resistances”, “market is still in a bearish trend”. I conclude that the author is looking more in favour of going down.
Conclusion: down
3. MM club
Although the bitcoin review is “both ways”, all trades in the channel are longs. Gaining alta in the short and medium term
Conclusion: rise
4. Crypto coin B
BTC and SP500 are expected to fall, shorting the Alta.
The author’s opinion has not changed since the last review.
Conclusion: down
5. DW Trade
Deals only in shorts
The author’s opinion has not changed since the last review.
Conclusion: down
6. Ghost trade
Deals only in long
Conclusion: rise
7. Ark (in the original — Ковчег)
On the medium term the author seems to be longing, on the short term he opens shorts
Conclusion: 50/50
8. Waveform analysis (in the original — Волновой aнализ)
Expect growth from both bitcoin and the stock market
Conclusion: rise
9. P4M
Author shorts bitcoin
Conclusion: down
10. Jewtrade
The short-term expectation from the market is a drop of 5%, to $16,200. From there, the author suggests a longing. Locally, a decline is expected
Conclusion: down
11. Romanov
The author writes about the lack of obvious weakness in the market, longing bitcoin
Conclusion: rise
12. Trading in crypto TG
I’ll make an exception and post a screen review… For a general understanding of what I’m parsing in sentiment analysis in general. There’s a ton of charting on the chart, no use at all.
The author’s main expectation is a drop to the $13900 to $15600 area
Conclusion: down
13. Booba Signals (in the original — Booba Сигналы)
The author logs, expects growth
Conclusion: rise
14. Aziz analytics (in the original — Азиз аналитика)
The author is more inclined to reduce
The author’s opinion has not changed since the last review.
Conclusion: down
15. FED RUSSIANS INSIDER
The overview on BTC is again awful. The upside is given as 52% versus 48% in favour of the downside… Overall 50\50
Conclusion: 50/50
Outcome
- BelnCrypto Premium Channel — 50/50
- Coin coach — down
- MM club — up
- Crypto coin B — down
- DW Trade — down
- Ghost trade — up
- Ark (in the original — Ковчег) — 50/50
- Waveform analysis (in the original — Волновой aнализ) — up
- P4M — down
- Jewtrade — down
- Romanov — up
- Trading in crypto TG — down
- Booba Signals (in the original — Booba Сигналы) — up
- Aziz analytics (in the original — Азиз аналитика) — down
- FED RUSSIANS INSIDER — 50\50
Last time the opinions were divided along the channels as follows:
- Up: 4
- Uncertainty: 3
- Down: 8
Now:
- Up: 5
- Uncertainty: 3
- Down: 7
The situation has not changed much. In fact, 1 out of 15 traders flipped from expectation to decline and that was it.
Overall sentiment: 33% looking up, 46% down (last time 26% up, 53% down).
Social media sentiment
Next, social media activity related to bitcoin and the crypto market will be examined.
Telegram
There has been a catastrophic drop in interest in crypto. As I wrote in a previous review, crypto in Telegram is dying.
Twitter activity has not fallen. The current decrease in the graph is the data for the new day, which has just begun (at the time of writing).decrease (last time 26% increase, 53% decrease).
Keywords
Keyword searches analyse social media: Telegram, Twitter, Reddit. The pattern of reactions is different for each chart, but in the medium term these keywords may show either the culmination of a trend movement or a forthcoming future movement.
It is necessary to understand that the market moves against the crowd. When a surge of buy interest is seen, we should expect a decline, while if a sell interest is seen, we should expect a rise.
“Buy” & “dip” keywords
Logic: After a spike above a certain value, there should be a decline soon. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
No willingness to buy has been seen in recent weeks. There was a spike during the last dump, and a spike during a trend move is generally normal. Another thing is when there are such outbursts in a sideways move, then the market comes to the downside.
“bear” keyword
Logic: During a spike, the decline should stop, the indicator is a “stop” indicator for the decline. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
There is now a noticeable high level of sell-side activity. Unlike reactions to buy & dip, where there was only a short-term spike, there are just as many willing to short now as there were in the summer. But while the crowd believed in a decline, the market went from $17,000 to $22,000. Then the number of those willing to sell declined. All of this can be seen in the chart above.
“short” keyword
Logic: The surge precedes the rise or during the peak of the fall. Detailed description in week #39 (link — in russian version).
The horizontal line shows the average fear level over the 5 months of accumulation. The last wave of declines has seen the highest number of willing shorts, the “wave” is the widest among all declines in btc.
Conclusion
The presence of a large number of willing sellers is on the face of it. At the very least, the market should not fall until the metrics above stabilise. That said, it is logical enough to see at least a small increase against the whole crowd.
Financing rate
This indicator comes from the futures markets. In simple terms, if there are too many long positions in the market (the market is most likely rising), then every 8 hours a certain percentage is taken from the total margin of each long position in the futures markets and allocated among the short positions. And vice versa. The size of these same percentages is shown on the funding rate chart. You can read more about the financing rate here (link — in english version).
How to use it?
A financing rate that is too high leads to a very rapid decline. Too low a funding rate leads to either a rise or a halt to a fall. All trend movements up or down are accompanied by a calm funding rate, it means that crowd does not favor the direction of the current movement. As soon as there is a spike, the price soon goes in the opposite direction.
A detailed statistical analysis of the metric is given in week #39 (link — in russian version).
Binance
There has been a gradual decrease in the funding rate
Bitmex
On bitmex the rate is negative at all
Conclusion
The financing rate is an indicator that works out quite quickly. And at the moment a large number of willing sellers are being recorded. The market may get a very tiny wave of decline ($500-$700 down), but after that, according to the indicator, a serious fall should be drawn.
Liquidations
The whole month there is just minimal activity on the liquidation chart. This indicates a serious contraction of liquidity in the market. This can be interpreted as a bullish sign, the crowd, those who are liquid, practically do not trade.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index shows the mood of market players by analyzing social media for keywords. The peak values of this indicator, according to the authors’ claims, signal an overbought or oversold bitcoin.
By studying the indicator we can conclude that the historical values of the market “bottom” fall within the value of 10, or that a serious bounce has been formed from this value.
Read more here (link — in russian version).
Indicator value: 27
The indicator is down 4 points since the last review. But still the indicator is in a balanced position for a bear market.
Grand total
Analysing public analysts, 4 out of 10 people look in favour of growth. But more importantly, some traders have capitulated and are looking as negatively at the market as possible.
Analysing VIP channels, only 33% of all channels are looking in favour of growth. Two out of 15 stick to neutrality, the rest are waiting for a fall. VIP channels are shorting or waiting to buy at $12,000. Will they be given it?
On social media, the situation is also not in favour of a fall. There is a serious upsurge of expectations that the market will fall further.
The liquidation schedule indicates a serious reduction in the crowd in the market. I interpret this as a bullish sign. The crowd will return to the market when bitcoin grows in serious strength.
The funding rate suggests that the bulk of the market is shorting right now. And judging by this indicator, a rise is about to happen…
Conclusions and author’s view
To sum up, I am sticking with the view from the previous review. I expect the market to rise purely above $19,000.
If you are interested in the author’s other researches, as well as current thoughts on the crypto market, follow Crypto Shaman in Telegram.